Critical Consensus on 2008 Movies

MovieCityNews.com compiles the top ten lists of various film critics. With over 50 down, and several more to go, here's where things stand currently:

1. WALL-E - 277.5 points
2. The Dark Knight - 207
3. Milk - 185.5
4. Slumdog Millionaire - 182
5. The Wrestler - 153
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 118
7. Rachel Getting Married - 114.5
8. A Christmas Tale - 112.5
9. Synecdoche NY - 101.5
10. Happy-Go-Lucky - 95.5

11. Wendy & Lucy
12. Let the Right One In
13. The Edge of Heaven
14. Man on Wire
15. Frost/Nixon
16. In Bruges
17. The Visitor
18. Che
19. The Reader

(4 Months, 3 Weeks 7 2 Days is the actual #19, but since it finished #12 in 2007, I took it out).

Now looking back through the years, these charts have been semi-indicators of how Academy voters might swing. * - winner

BEST PICTURE 2007
*1-No Country for Old Men
2-There Will Be Blood
6-Juno
7-Atonement
15-Michael Clayton

BEST PICTURE 2006
2-The Queen
*3-The Departed
4-Letters from Iwo Jima
7-Little Miss Sunshine
8-Babel
(#1 that year was United 93)

BEST PICTURE 2005
1-Brokeback Mountain
3-Capote
4-Good Night and Good Luck
*7-Crash
8-Munich

BEST PICTURE 2004
1-Sideways
*3-Million Dollar Baby
4-The Aviator
13-Finding Neverland
16-Ray

BEST PICTURE 2003
1-Lost in Translation
*2-The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
3-Mystic River
8-Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World
19-Seabiscuit

BEST PICTURE 2002
6-The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
7-The Pianist
*8-Chicago
10-Gangs of New York
11-The Hours
(#1 that year was Far From Heaven)

So by this terribly unscientific look at the thing, no film has been nominated for Best Picture finishing outside the Top 19.

And Pixar movies have finished at fifth (Finding Nemo), sixth (The Incredibles), and ninth (Ratatouille) in their respective years, but never #1. So if ever there was a year to nominate a Pixar movie outside of the Best Animated Film category, this is it.

It also raises the question about best picture hopefuls like Doubt, Gran Torino and Revolutionary Road. Unless there's some critical surge, I'd write those three movies off for the big one. There's still a question as to whether or not The Dark Knight will get nominated. Far as I know, no superhero movie has ever been nominated, but it's unlike any superhero movie ever made.

I think the three locks for Best Picture nominations are Milk, Slumdog Millionaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The Dark Knight should be a lock, but you never know with this Academy. Frost/Nixon is the likely fifth. It's doing well in limited release, it's from Ron Howard, it leans left politically, but now I wonder if WALL-E could get a groundswell from out of nowhere, or if The Wrestler can get enough buzz about it's not just Mickey Rourke's performance that makes it great. If Harvey Weinstein worked for Pixar, I'd say he'd get the job done. This is the guy who talked the Academy into giving Roberto Benigni a Best Actor trophy.