Summer usually doesn't start until May, but Marvel threw us a loop. Those who listen to Jedi & Jerms know I had my list written up before Avengers opened, but here's my write-up.
1. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR - $720 million - Every Marvel movie made has lead up to this point, and this movie is leading up to next year's Avengers movie, and so forth. The record opening was easy to predict.
2. INCREDIBLES 2 - $410 million - Pixar's had a couple stumbles lately (Cars 3, The Good Dinosaur), but Coco soared, and this movie should do Finding Dory type numbers.
3. SOLO - $380 million - This "smaller" side adventure looks like it's finally come together.I don't feel like this has the buzz of Rogue One, but it'll still make a ton of money.
4. JURASSIC WORLD FALLEN KINGDOM - $350 million - The marketing campaign has reminded me of Terminator: Genisys, where the initial trailers don't really spark excitement, so they cut another trailer that makes it look like a completely different story. I just get the feeling the reviews are going to be mixed and it'll fall quickly after a massive opening.
5. DEADPOOL 2 - $300 million - It's opening in a great spot, and I see it outgrossing its predecessor.
6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE FALLOUT - $210 million - Tom Cruise's track record may be hit and miss lately, but the Mission Impossible franchise is rock-solid reliable. Looking forward to seeing him and Superman fight.
7. ANT-MAN & THE WASP - $190 million - Ant-Man may have sat out the latest Avengers movie, but things are getting darker over there. Here he gets to keep his light touch going, and it'll be another grossing example of how Marvel can do no wrong.
8. OCEAN'S 8 - $144 million - All-star female cast. Breezy ad campaign. Sequel without really being a sequel. It has all the markings of a summer hit, and hey, three Oscar-winning actresses letting their hair down.
9. HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3 - $125 million - This franchise is fine. Not great, not bad. I don't see why this won't be successful.
10. MAMMA MIA: HERE WE GO AGAIN - $118 million - I have zero interest in this, but I'm not the target audience. I could be wrong, and this could be a Rock of Ages level dud, but I think it's more likely to be a hit.
11. SKYSCRAPER - $110 million - Dwayne Johnson takes a break from pre-established IP and stars in a semi-original movie that looks like a cross between Die Hard in the Towering Inferno.
12. THE EQUALIZER 2 - $108 million - Denzel Washington movies tend to come out in the fall, but I see this doing just a smidge better than the original thanks to its release date.
13. CHRISTOPHER ROBIN - $100 million - Haven't seen much of this yet, but I have a sneaking suspision Disney's going to be able to pull this off, with Ewan McGregor as an adult Christopher Robin who suddenly starts seeing his old friend Winnie-the-Pooh in real life.
14. THE FIRST PURGE - $90 million - This has been a pretty reliable franchise, and while the third one effectively wrapped it up, this goes back to the beginning to show where it all began. Plus it has Marisa Tomei.
15. UNCLE DREW - $72 million - I think tracking for this will rise as it gets closer, as the NBA Finals heat up. Reliable comic actors like Tiffany Haddish, Nick Kroll, and LilRel Howery (Get Out) mix together with NBA greats in old-age makeup (Kyrie Irving, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, Reggie Miller, etc.)
16. TEEN TITANS GO TO THE MOVIES - $70 million - Hey, I didn't think the Emoji Movie would be successful either, but it was.
17. LIFE OF THE PARTY - $63 million - Melissa McCarthy's own version of Back to School looks all right.
18. THE SPY WHO DUMPED ME - $60 million - Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon look like a decent comedic pair, and something has to make money in August.
19. THE MEG - $58 million - This giant shark movie has the weekend to itself, so why not?
20. HEREDITARY - $55 million - I've heard this is a genuinely frightening movie, so it'll need that word-of-mouth to crack the top 20.
Wild Cards:
(Between $30-50 million)
Action Point - Johnny Knoxville's slapstick humor might get some people out, but after seeing the preview more than once, I feel like I've seen the whole movie.
Adrift - Those waves look amazing, but otherwise I don't think this'll break out.
The Darkest Minds - Looks like a YA X-Men rip-off, but if it hits the right emotional notes...
The Happytown Murders - Haven't seen a trailer yet, but the thought of a murder mystery in a world where humans and muppets interact is intriguing.
Hotel Artemis - It looks like a blast, like a John Wick spin-off, but I don't trust the studio releasing it. I'm rooting for it to be good.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado - The marketing's been going on forever, but the first one, while really good, wasn't exactly a box office smash. And Emily Blunt's not here this time around.
Slender Man - You never know what horror movie will take off, but this has a decent chance.
Tag - Looks like one of those comedies that opens in the mid-teens, grosses around $45 million.
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