Summer Box Office Preview

Summer usually doesn't start until May, but Marvel threw us a loop. Those who listen to Jedi & Jerms know I had my list written up before Avengers opened, but here's my write-up.

1. AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR - $720 million - Every Marvel movie made has lead up to this point, and this movie is leading up to next year's Avengers movie, and so forth. The record opening was easy to predict.

2. INCREDIBLES 2 - $410 million - Pixar's had a couple stumbles lately (Cars 3, The Good Dinosaur), but Coco soared, and this movie should do Finding Dory type numbers.

3. SOLO - $380 million - This "smaller" side adventure looks like it's finally come together.I don't feel like this has the buzz of Rogue One, but it'll still make a ton of money.

4. JURASSIC WORLD FALLEN KINGDOM - $350 million - The marketing campaign has reminded me of Terminator: Genisys, where the initial trailers don't really spark excitement, so they cut another trailer that makes it look like a completely different story. I just get the feeling the reviews are going to be mixed and it'll fall quickly after a massive opening.

5. DEADPOOL 2 - $300 million - It's opening in a great spot, and I see it outgrossing its predecessor.

6. MISSION IMPOSSIBLE FALLOUT - $210 million - Tom Cruise's track record may be hit and miss lately, but the Mission Impossible franchise is rock-solid reliable. Looking forward to seeing him and Superman fight.

7. ANT-MAN & THE WASP - $190 million - Ant-Man may have sat out the latest Avengers movie, but things are getting darker over there. Here he gets to keep his light touch going, and it'll be another grossing example of how Marvel can do no wrong.

8. OCEAN'S 8 - $144 million - All-star female cast. Breezy ad campaign. Sequel without really being a sequel. It has all the markings of a summer hit, and hey, three Oscar-winning actresses letting their hair down.

9. HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3 - $125 million - This franchise is fine. Not great, not bad. I don't see why this won't be successful.

10. MAMMA MIA: HERE WE GO AGAIN - $118 million - I have zero interest in this, but I'm not the target audience. I could be wrong, and this could be a Rock of Ages level dud, but I think it's more likely to be a hit.

11. SKYSCRAPER - $110 million - Dwayne Johnson takes a break from pre-established IP and stars in a semi-original movie that looks like a cross between Die Hard in the Towering Inferno.

12. THE EQUALIZER 2 - $108 million - Denzel Washington movies tend to come out in the fall, but I see this doing just a smidge better than the original thanks to its release date.

13. CHRISTOPHER ROBIN - $100 million - Haven't seen much of this yet, but I have a sneaking suspision Disney's going to be able to pull this off, with Ewan McGregor as an adult Christopher Robin who suddenly starts seeing his old friend Winnie-the-Pooh in real life.

14. THE FIRST PURGE - $90 million - This has been a pretty reliable franchise, and while the third one effectively wrapped it up, this goes back to the beginning to show where it all began. Plus it has Marisa Tomei.

15. UNCLE DREW - $72 million - I think tracking for this will rise as it gets closer, as the NBA Finals heat up. Reliable comic actors like Tiffany Haddish, Nick Kroll, and LilRel Howery (Get Out) mix together with NBA greats in old-age makeup (Kyrie Irving, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, Reggie Miller, etc.)

16. TEEN TITANS GO TO THE MOVIES - $70 million - Hey, I didn't think the Emoji Movie would be successful either, but it was.

17. LIFE OF THE PARTY - $63 million - Melissa McCarthy's own version of Back to School looks all right.

18. THE SPY WHO DUMPED ME - $60 million - Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon look like a decent comedic pair, and something has to make money in August.

19. THE MEG - $58 million - This giant shark movie has the weekend to itself, so why not?

20. HEREDITARY - $55 million - I've heard this is a genuinely frightening movie, so it'll need that word-of-mouth to crack the top 20.

Wild Cards:
(Between $30-50 million)

Action Point - Johnny Knoxville's slapstick humor might get some people out, but after seeing the preview more than once, I feel like I've seen the whole movie.

Adrift - Those waves look amazing, but otherwise I don't think this'll break out.

The Darkest Minds - Looks like a YA X-Men rip-off, but if it hits the right emotional notes...

The Happytown Murders - Haven't seen a trailer yet, but the thought of a murder mystery in a world where humans and muppets interact is intriguing.

Hotel Artemis - It looks like a blast, like a John Wick spin-off, but I don't trust the studio releasing it. I'm rooting for it to be good.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado - The marketing's been going on forever, but the first one, while really good, wasn't exactly a box office smash. And Emily Blunt's not here this time around.

Slender Man - You never know what horror movie will take off, but this has a decent chance.

Tag - Looks like one of those comedies that opens in the mid-teens, grosses around $45 million.

Summer 2017 Box Office Predictions

Another summer of big-budget blockbuster sequels, remakes and spinoffs!  Here's how I see the summer going with domestic grosses.

1. SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (7/7) - $470 million - As long as it's good, it'll be huge. It's been only three years since the disappointing Amazing Spider-Man 2, but now with a younger Spidey who's part of the official MCU, complete with Iron Man as his co-star, I see this being the biggest winner, as much as any Avengers movie.

2. GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY 2 (5/5) - $400 million - Oh look, another huge comic-book movie. Most of the reviews seem to be "as good or almost as good as the first one" which is usually the best a sequel can hope for. (The Dark Knight is a unicorn.) Someday a Disney/Marvel flick will flop. BUT NOT THIS DAY.

3. DESPICABLE ME 3 (6/30) - $355 million - The first two were huge, and Minions spinoff was even bigger. There's always one animated film that rises above the others, and I see this one as the most likely.

4. WONDER WOMAN (6/2) - $225 million - I'm betting on this being the first good DC movie since it became Zack Snyder's universe. And ironically I don't see it making as much as disappointments like Batman v. Superman and Suicide Squad, but it'll show itself to be a step in the right direction. If this movie sucks, I see some heads rolling.

5. TRANSFORMERS: THE LAST KNIGHT (6/23) - $210 million - People keep seeing these nmovies, so they keep getting made. Is there something special about this script that tricked Anthony Hopkins into joining the cast?

6. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES (5/26) - $184 million - Johnny Depp's star power has taken a hit lately, with big flops (Mortdecai, Alice Through the Looking Glass) and the allegations he abused his ex-wife Amber Heard. I think it helps this movie's chances that Javier Bardem looks like a formidable villain.

7. CARS 3 (6/16) - $178 million - It looks like it's going to take a wildly different direction that the spy caper that was Cars 2. A final trailer for it should drop this week that lays out the story more, but the basics are that Lightning McQueen (Owen Wilson) gets into an accident and realizes he's having a hard time keeping up with the younger racing cars.

8. WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (7/14) - $156 million - I don't see this being quite as big as the first two, but it also feels like the completion of the Caesar trilogy. Once again, none of the humans from the previous film return, but the supporting apes (Cornelia, Rocket, Blue Eyes, etc.) are all still there.

9. THE MUMMY (6/9) - $148 million - Tom Cruise is a good beginning for an anticipated Monster Cinematic Universe. This will tie to Johnny Depp as the Invisible Man (in development), and presumably Dracula and Frankenstein will eventually join them.

10. DUNKIRK (7/21) - $140 million - WWII dramas are generally reliable, but with director Christopher Nolan attached, I expect this to be an event. Nolan faves Tom Hardy (Bane) and Cillian Murphy (Scarecrow) star with Kenneth Branagh, Mark Rylance and Harry Styles. Yes, THAT Harry Styles. This is also the first movie on the list that isn't a sequel/spinoff/remake.

11. THE EMOJI MOVIE (7/28) - $120 million - Hey, if the Angry Birds movie can make over $100 million, why can't this, with slightly more timely characters? It has four weeks of space after Despicable Me 3, and you have to either be really original (Kubo & the Two Strings) or really bad (Ice Age 5) to be an animated movie in summer and not make money.

12. BAYWATCH (5/26) - $118 million - Dwayne Johnson is a hit machine. It continues the trend of taking old TV shows and turning them into raunchy R-rated comedies, and for every 21 Jump Street, we get a CHiPs, but this looks like it'll work. The Rock and Zac Efron look like they have good chemistry.

13. ALIEN: COVENANT (5/19) - $115 million - While Prometheus may have disappointed some people, this looks like it's getting back to its vicious roots. My only fear is it looks a little too much like the original, and one thing that worked about the original is that it was a true ensemble and it wasn't clear that Ripley was the main character until after the captain died. From the trailers I already feel like I know who's left alive at the end of the movie.

14. ROUGH NIGHT (6/16) - $101 million - I see this attempt to find the Bad Moms audience as a successful one. Scarlett Johansson, Kate mcKinnon, Zoe Kravitz and Jillian Bell are a group of friends having a bachelorette party when they accidentally kill their male stripper. Hijinks ensue.

15. THE HOUSE (6/30) - $100 million - Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler play a couple with money problems who decide to open an illegal casino in their basement.

16. THE DARK TOWER (8/4) - $95 million - I think there are enough fans of the books that this should do okay, though I'm gathering fans are really divided by the trailer. (Felt a lot more sci-fi than I thought the first movie should.)

17. CAPTAIN UNDERPANTS (6/2) - $94 million - Haven't seen much advertising for this, but it is the first animated movie of the summer, so it should have a decent opening regardless of quality.

18. ANNABELLE: CREATION (8/11) - $77 million - Hated the first one, but the marketing for this has been smart. I see it being like Ouija 2 where the sequel is a vast improvement over the predecessor.

19. ATOMIC BLONDE (7/28) - $72 million - Charlize Theron kicking butt. That's not a guaranteed hit formula, but it looks like the movie's taking the right approach.

20. SNATCHED (5/12) - $70 million - I used to think this would do better, but there seems to be this backlash against Amy Schumer right now.

Other Notable Releases:

ALL EYEZ ON ME (6/16) - The Tupac Shakur bio.

BABY DRIVER (6/30) - Snazzy preview but looks too niche to do much better than The Nice Guys.

DETROIT (8/4) - Kathryn Bigelow's hotbed drama about the 1967 Detroit Riots could be a surprise hit.

GIRLS TRIP (7/21) - Another entry in the Bad Moms/Rough Night genre, this one starring Regina Hall and Jada Pinkett Smith.

THE HITMAN'S BODYGUARD (8/18) - Ryan Reynolds is the bodyguard of Samuel L. Jackson's hitman. Mother-effin hijinks ensue.

KING ARTHUR: LEGEND OF THE SWORD (5/12) - Been hearing this is a mess, so I'm going to guess it doesn't crack the top 20.

VALERIAN & THE CITY OF 1000 PLANETS (7/21) - Looks like a gloriously expensive bomb. But I'm rooting for it.

Horror Flicks:

47 METERS DOWN (6/16) - This year's The Shallows.

AMITYVILLE: THE AWAKENING (6/30) - It's been in the can for three years, so I don't have much faith in it being good.

IT COMES AT NIGHT (6/9) - Thriller looks like it's about paranoia but there might actually be something out there.

POLAROID (8/25) - Don't know anything about it but it's opening in the Don't Breathe slot.

WISH UPON (7/14) - Joey King (The Conjuring) finds a box that grants wishes but things start to go horribly awry.