Monday, January 26, 2009

My Academy Award Predictions

Here's where I see the race now. This isn't necessarily who I want to win, but who I think will actually win.

Best Picture
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Milk
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Reader

Best Director
1. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. Gus Van Sant, Milk
3. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Stephen Daldry, The Reader
5. Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Best Actor
1. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
2. Sean Penn, Milk
3. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actress
1. Kate Winslet, The Reader
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
4. Melissa Leo, Frozen River
5. Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Best Supporting Actor
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2. Josh Brolin, Milk
3. Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
5. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress
1. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Viola Davis, Doubt
4. Amy Adams, Doubt
5. Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Best Original Screenplay
1. Milk
3. Happy Go Lucky
4. Frozen River
5. In Bruges

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Frost/Nixon
3. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4. Doubt
5. The Reader

I think the closest race is between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke for Best Actor. There've been a few years where movies will landslide all awards (Titanic, Return of the King, etc.) but I see this as a wealth-spreading year, where Slumdog gets Picture/Director, and then Milk gets screenplay here, The Reader gets Actress there, Ben Button and Dark Knight split the technicals, and so on.

If Ben Button had less than 9 nominations, I'd rank it third in Best Picture odds, but since it has 13 nominations, that might be a signal.

I still haven't seen Slumdog Millionaire but I plan to this week.

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