Last-Second 2020 Oscar Nomination predictions

Nominations will be out tomorrow so here are my last-second guesses.

PICTURE

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Maybe: Da 5 Bloods, News of the World

Should Be But Won't: The Outpost

There will likely be 9 nominees, so there's my top 8, and I think one of those two titles will be the final one.

DIRECTOR

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Emerald Ferrell, Promising Young Woman

David Fincher, Mank

Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Maybe: Regina King, One Night in Miami

Should Be But Won't: Josephine Decker, Shirley

ACTOR

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Gary Oldman, Mank

Maybe: Steven Yuen, Minari

Should Be But Won't: Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot

Maybe: Andra Day, The Unites States v. Billie Holiday

Should Be But Won't: Elizabeth Moss, Shirley

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sasha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas & the Black Messiah

Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Maybe: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

Should Be But Won't: Michael Stuhlbarg, Shirley

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilms

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman, The Father

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Maybe: Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

Should Be But Won't: Elizabeth Debicki, Tenet

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mank

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Maybe: Another Round

Should Be But Won't: Palm Springs

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Father

First Cow

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Nomadland

One Night in Miami

Maybe: The White Tiger

Should Be But Won't: The Outpost

2020 Screen Actors Guild Nominations

This one feels like it's going to have a closer resemblance to what the Oscar nominations are than the Globes. Usually the case, but just feels like more so this year. Some of the biggest perceived snubs get corrected here, but I'm still bummed everyone's forgotten about Elizabeth Moss in Shirley. Is it a sign of the times that the majority of 4 of the 5 nominated casts are minorities?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture 

“Da 5 Bloods” (Netflix)

“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix) 

“Minari” (A24) 

“One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) 

“The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role 

Amy Adams (“Hillbilly Elegy”) 

Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) 

Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) 

Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) 

Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role 

Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) 

Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) 

Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) 

Gary Oldman (“Mank”) 

Steven Yeun (“Minari”)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role 

Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) 

Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) 

Olivia Colman (“The Father”) 

Youn Yuh-Jung (“Minari”)

Helena Zengel (“News of the World”)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role 

Chadwick Boseman (“Da 5 Bloods”)

Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)

Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

Jared Leto (“The Little Things”)

Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series 

“Better Call Saul”

“Bridgerton”

“The Crown”

“Lovecraft Country”

“Ozark”

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series 

“Dead to Me”

“The Flight Attendant”

“The Great”

“Schitt’s Creek”

“Ted Lasso”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series 

Gillian Anderson (“The Crown”) 

Olivia Colman (“The Crown”) 

Emma Corrin (“The Crown”) 

Julia Garner (“Ozark”) 

Laura Linney (“Ozark”)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series 

Jason Bateman (“Ozark”) 

Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”) 

Josh O’Connor (“The Crown”) 

Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) 

Rege-Jean Page (“Bridgerton”)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series 

Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”) 

Linda Cardellini (“Dead to Me”) 

Kaley Cuoco (“The Flight Attendant”) 

Annie Murphy (“Schitt’s Creek”) 

Catherine O’Hara (“Schitt’s Creek”) 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series 

Nicholas Hoult (“The Great”)

Dan Levy (“Schitt’s Creek”)

Eugene Levy (“Schitt’s Creek”)

Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”)

Ramy Youssef (“Ramy”)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries 

Cate Blanchett (“Mrs. America”)

Michaela Coel (“I May Destroy You”)

Nicole Kidman (“The Undoing”)

Anya Taylor-Joy (“The Queen’s Gambit”)

Kerry Washington (“Little Fires Everywhere”)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries 

Bill Camp (“The Queen’s Gambit”)

Daveed Diggs (“Hamilton”)

Hugh Grant (“The Undoing”)

Ethan Hawke (“The Good Lord Bird”)

Mark Ruffalo (“I Know This Much Is True”)

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture 

“Da 5 Bloods”

“Mulan”

“News of the World”

“The Trial of the Chicago 7”

“Wonder Woman 1984”

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series 

“The Boys”

“Cobra Kai”

“Lovecraft Country”

“The Mandalorian”

“Westworld”

Black Panther - Movie Review

Starring Chadwick Boseman, Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o, Danai Gurira, Angela Bassett, Martin Freeman, Letitia Wright, Andy Serkis, Forest Whitaker, Daniel Kaluuya, Winston Duke and Sterling K. Brown.
Written by Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole.
Directed by Ryan Coogler.

★★★½

I'm a big fan of the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies. Even the worst one, I'd still give a thumbs-sideways to. Even so, lately we've had some really good ones. Black Panther did not disappoint.

After stealing the show in Captain America: Civil War, T'Challa (Chadwick Boseman) is back with his own movie, in his own country. Wakanda has been a secret country in Africa for thousands of years, highly advanced thanks to a special alien metal called vibranium. While Wakanda has flourished, the rest of the world has gone through the wars and social upheavals of real history. Eric Killonger (Michael B. Jordan) is a villain ready to topple King T'Challa and use Wakanda's powers for some world disruption/domination. His plan may be similar to most supervillains ("I will rule this world!"), but he has one of the better backstories, and combined with MBJ's performance, Killmonger winds up being one of the most compelling MCU villains.

I liked watching a movie full of mythic black empowerment imagery - Wakanda's like the African answer to the Hogwarts, Middle Earth, Westeros worlds we've been getting the last couple decades - and I liked a Marvel movie with so many strong female characters. A few years ago, General Okoye (Walking Dead's Danai Gurira) probably would have been a man, and Queen Ramonda (Angela Bassett) would only have a handful of lines. They're great, and we also get good performances from T'Challa's gizmoduck of a sister Shuri (Letitia Wright) and his love-interest Nakia (Lupita Nyong'o, in her best role since winning the Oscar for 12 Years a Slave), who has her own subplot and isn't just there to react to what T'Challa's doing.

The Tolkein white guys Martin Freeman and Andy Serkis are fun in their roles. Freeman's got that jittery Dr. Watson energy he has as Agent Ross when he was introduced in Captain America: Civil War, and Serkis is in full "Wee! I'm a comic book villain!" mode.

Gods of Egypt - DVD Review

GODS OF EGYPT (PG-13) Starring Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Gerard Butler, Brendon Thwaites, Elodie Yung, Chadwick Boseman, Geoffrey Rush, Courtney Eaton, Rufus Sewell and Bryan Brown.
Written by Matt Sazama & Burk Sharpless.
Directed by Alex Proyas.

★★

The first and perhaps biggest problem with this is the casting. They're making a movie about Egypt, and 90% of the cast is white. Not even some ethnic-ish looking guys, but our main Aladdin-like hero is Brendon Thwaites. The main hero-god is Nikolaj Coster-Waldau. Freakin' RA THE SUN GOD is played by Geoffrey Rush.

Whitewashing aside, this movie aspires to be another Clash of the Titans, and it is. Trouble is, Clash wasn't very good. There's a lot of ham and cheese in this movie, and the best part was Chadwick Boseman as the vain god Thoth. But yeah, you were okay to skip this one.

42 - Movie Review

Starring Chadwick Boseman, Harrison Ford, Nicole Beharie, Lucas Black, Christopher Meloni, Alan Tudyk, Ryan Merrimen and John C. McGinley.  Directed by Brian Helgeland.

★★★1/4

This is a rousing sentimental take on Jackie Robinson, the first African-American to play in the major league baseball.

It starts with bona-fide movie-star Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey.  Ford embraces every one of his 70 years to play him, probably the first time in his career he's played his own age.  (He has good genes).  Rickey wants to be the first owner to have the first black player in the Major Leagues, and he finds the man he wants in Jackie Robinson (Chadwick Boseman).

The tone of the movie is old-fashioned without being corny.  Shades of The Natural and The Blind Side.  The only time it really faltered for me was whenever there was a kid on screen.  Then it was gosh-gee-willikers cloying. I don't know if it was the casting or just the Little Rascals-ish on-the-nose dialogue they had.

I'm not a big baseball fan, but when it comes to sports movies, baseball tends to produce some of the best.

Weekend Box Office - 42 is #1

For the weekend of April 12-14.

1.  42 - $27.25 million - 1 wk (WB)
 . . . 3003 screens / $9074 per screen
2.  Scary Movie 5 - $15.15 - 1 wk (Dim)
 . . . 3402 / $4454
3.  The Croods - $13.2 ($142.52) - 4 wks (Fox) -36.1%
 . . . 3689 / $3578
4.  GI Joe: Retaliation - $10.8 ($102.43) - 3 wks (Par) -48.3%
 . . . 3535 / $3055
5.  Evil Dead - $9.5 ($41.5) - 2 wks (TS) -63.1%
 . . . 3025 / $3140
6.  Jurassic Park 3D - $8.82 ($31.93) - 2 wks (U) -52.6%
 . . . 2778 / $3175
7.  Olympus Has Fallen - $7.28 ($81.89) - 4 wks (FD) -28.3%
 . . . 2935 / $2481
8.  Oz the Great & Powerful - $4.92 ($219.44) - 6 wks (BV) -38.5%
 . . . 2504 / $1966
9.  Tyler Perry's Temptation - $4.5 ($45.42) - 3 wks (LG) -55.4%
 . . . 1805 / $2493
10. The Place Beyond the Pines - $4.08 ($5.46) - 3 wks (Foc) +480%
 . . . 514 / $7983

Brian Helgeland's feel biopic "42", about Jackie Robinson, is a hit, buoyed by a weak field, Harrison Ford's loaned star power, and just a good story.  Scary Movie 5 may have attacked Evil Dead's second weekend numbers, but it's also the lowest opening ever for the Scary franchise. (Scary Movie 4 opened to $40 million in 2006).

The Croods is on course to pass $400 million worldwide, so I'd expect The Croods 2 to come in 2016 or 2017.