Fall TV Comparisons

Fall 2008

22 new shows on the Big Five.

Only 4 of them have made it to a second season. CBS's The Mentalist and Gary Unmarried. FOX's Fringe. The CW's 90210.

Fall 2006

25 new shows on the Big Five. 11 of them got second seasons. 7 of them are still around. NBC's Sunday Night Football, 30 Rock, Heroes, and Friday Night Lights (now on DirecTV). ABC's Ugly Betty and Brothers & Sisters. Fox's Til Death.

Fall 2002

32 new shows on the Big Six (when The WB and UPN hadn't merged into The CW yet.) 12 of them got second season. Only one, CBS's CSI: Miami, is still around.

So...

Fall 2009

There are 22 new shows, though one of them is NBC's The Jay Leno Show which gets five hours of primetime. So anywhere from 20% to 40% of the new shows may make it to a second season. Pretending that eight will get a second season and the other fourteen will be cancelled, what would be my guess?

NBC's Jay Leno Show
FOX's The Cleveland Show
CBS's NCIS: Los Angeles
NBC's Community
ABC's Modern Family
ABC's FlashForward
The CW's The Vampire Diaries
FOX's Glee

Which would leave:
ABC's V
CBS's The Good Wife
The CW's Melrose Place
CBS's Three Rivers
NBC's Trauma
ABC's Hank
ABC's Cougar Town
ABC's The Middle
CBS's Accidentally on Purpose
NBC's Mercy
ABC's The Forgotten
ABC's Eastwick
The CW's The Beautiful Life
FOX's Brothers